New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nearly five years in Q2. SHFE tin prices remained high and traded sideways [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on August 6, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened lower in the night session, dipped slightly before rebounding, and closed at 266,900 yuan/mt, up 0.3% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to a five-year high in Q2, potentially prompting the RBNZ to resume interest rate cuts. Statistics New Zealand reported Wednesday that the jobless rate increased to 5.2% from 5.1% in Q1, marking the highest level since Q3 2020. Employment fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations. The New Zealand economy has been impacted by uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their global trade implications, with business confidence declining in Q2, manufacturing and services contracting, and the property market remaining sluggish. The RBNZ is expected to resume rate cuts on August 20, having paused in July, with most economists forecasting a 25-basis-point reduction to 3%. (2) Tariffs—①Trump: Will announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips within a week, with drug tariffs potentially reaching 250%. Will significantly raise tariffs on India within 24 hours. Will impose 35% tariffs if the EU fails to meet its US investment obligations. ②The US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, the smallest since September 2023.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely to maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: Orders for tin bars in east China declined after the installation rush, with some producers reducing operating rates; Electronics sector: End-users in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, resulting in strong wait-and-see sentiment and orders meeting only essential needs; Other sectors: Demand remained stable in areas like tinplate and chemicals, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Downstream enterprises remain in the traditional consumption off-season, with overall orders being mediocre. Recent high prices have dampened restocking sentiment among downstream players. Most traders reported sluggish market transactions.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]